I am expecting little news from the FOMC this week. The committee should take the final tranche of QE off, which might have been an unfavorable surprise amid the financial market volatility two weeks ago, but which is likely to go unnoticed this week.
Some of the regional presidents have been advocating their views towards on the one hand a slower move to higher interest rates (President Evans of the Chicago Fed, see his speech here) or on the other hand, a faster move (President Plosser of the Philadelphia Fed, see his speech here). My personal view is closer to the raise-rates-later view of President Evans. whatever the decision turns out to be, I do not expect any committee level move with this meeting, but we might get some additional information from Chair Yellen’s press conference and the updated “dot plot”, December 17th.
-John Eckstein, Chief Investment Officer