World PMI update September – continuing European weakness

  • We began registering concern about Eurozone growth in July and the latest numbers do not ease our concerns. Italy dropped below the 50% growth / contraction line with the August release. France may have stabilized but if so it too is below 50%. The PMI for the Eurozone as a whole is also close to the line suggesting shrinking manufacturing activity and has not increased since April.pmis-2014-09-25.b
  • To highlight the European trends we break them out in a second chart below. This chart reveals that while improvement we saw around the new year seems to have reversed, the Eurozone is not seeing the sorts of deterioration in manufacturing as was seen just 18 months ago. The European bond and currency markets, however, are reacting more dramatically than they did in 2012, perhaps because the ECB seems to be more worried this time.european.pmis.2014-09-25
  • North America seems to be a bright spot. The US has the highest reading overall and Canada and Mexico are both solidly above 50.
  • Asian PMIs are mainly around 50, though Taiwan, enjoying a new high, being an exception. All the new iPhone parts?

 

[Update]

In the event, the final numbers were somewhat weaker then first reported.  The updated Eurozone PMIs are repeated below:

Source: Bloomberg, Markit, Astor Calculations

Source: Bloomberg, Markit, Astor Calculations

 

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